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On 21 April 2026, at the Estadio Santiago Bernabéu, the La Liga fixture between Real Madrid and Alaves promises an intriguing contest. With Real Madrid's superior recent form and home advantage, backing a Real Madrid win or a draw with over 1.5 goals provides good value. This prediction taps into recent trends, squad form, and head-to-head patterns to guide your bets.
These are our top betting tips and predictions for the match.
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Last 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 |
Real Madrid
|
31 | 22 | 4 | 5 | 65 | 29 | 36 | 70 | D L W W W |
| 17 |
Alaves
|
31 | 8 | 9 | 14 | 35 | 46 | -11 | 33 | D D W D L |
Real Madrid
Stats
|
Real Madrid
|
MP | W | D | L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 31 | 22 | 4 | 5 |
| Home | 16 | 13 | 1 | 2 |
| Away | 15 | 9 | 3 | 3 |
|
Real Madrid
|
CS | BTTS | FTS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 35% | 55% | 10% |
| Home | 31% | 56% | 13% |
| Away | 40% | 53% | 7% |
Alaves
Stats
|
Alaves
|
MP | W | D | L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 31 | 8 | 9 | 14 |
| Home | 15 | 5 | 6 | 4 |
| Away | 16 | 3 | 3 | 10 |
|
Alaves
|
CS | BTTS | FTS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10% | 58% | 32% |
| Home | 13% | 67% | 20% |
| Away | 6% | 50% | 44% |
Real Madrid
Alaves
Real Madrid
Alaves
Real Madrid
Alaves
Real Madrid
Alaves
Real Madrid
Alaves
Real Madrid
Alaves
Real Madrid come into the match with strong recent form, winning 4 of their last 5 games, and have a comfortable standing. Alaves has mixed results but struggled away from home against top sides. Expect Real Madrid to control possession; however, Alaves may capitalize on set pieces or counterattacks.
Real Madrid remains largely fit with their key players ready, while Alaves has some squad depth but could be missing key figures, influencing their defensive stability. Both teams typically field strong lineups with minimal injuries.
In Real Madrid vs Alaves, expect a tight contest given recent head-to-head results and form. If Real Madrid scores first, they could settle into a defensive shape, but Alaves has shown resilience and capable of late goals. A draw at HT remains probable, yet Alaves late winning goals are a known pattern from recent encounters.
Real Madrid favor possession-based football with high pressing and a high number of goal attempts, especially in the second half. They are also disciplined, rarely falling into disciplinary trouble. Alaves's defensive resilience and quick counter-football could open scoring opportunities.
See below all the main information for this match.
Based on recent form and head-to-head data, Real Madrid are seen as favorites with around a 45% chance to win, a similar probability for a draw, and a 10% upset chance for Alaves.
The projected scoreline favors Real Madrid with approximately 2.2 goals per match, while Alaves averages around 1.1 goals, making a Real Madrid win with over 1.5 goals a common scenario.
A double chance on Real Madrid or Draw with an over 1.5 goals bet is recommended as the safest pick considering recent offensive performances.
Late goals and second-half goal patterns suggest the match could open in the second half, especially if Real Madrid takes the lead early in the match.
Disciplinary records are average, with some yellows but few reds, making accumulation of cards unlikely to influence the betting outcome significantly.
